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May 3rd 2009 PDF Print E-mail

Over the past few weeks the feeling that the "systemic" risks that plagued the markets back in the fall are now over. Although this may or may not be true, investors have become much more confident in the survival of the financial system. With this belief in place they continued to buy stocks that by historic standard seem cheap.

As I tried to point out in my last newsletter, it is widely believed that high unemployment normally occurs at the end of an economic downturn. It is generally termed the result of a recession not the cause of one. This is why rising unemployment has been ignored by most investors. This time around, however, things could be different and this is the risk that continues to loom. The growing unemployment situation and the continued strain it will put the whole economy may end up feeding on itself and become the cause of a new downward wave. It may be a contribute to a more prolonged recession.

Also, as stated in this weeks "Barrons" We also have a commercial real estate problem that has been widely ignored. The decline in the values of commercial property could add to the problems of the banks and their portfolios.

The only bright spot remains to be the enormous cash sitting on the sidelines. It wants to get invested and hopefully the optimistic money will continue to buy on the dips and keep the markets or stock prices somewhat stable.

I think the best way to play this market now is to get some income from corporate bonds with various qualities and maturities. Stocks that pay dividend continue to be a conservative move. Stocks with low debt structures in tech and health could prove to be good buys for those that are more brave.

 

 

 
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